Midas Touch Twitter - Sorry for the stream of consciousness, but I want to comment on Elon Musk's stake in Twitter (formerly listed on Nasdaq as TWTR) and my predictions for its impact on Tesla (NASDAQ stock). Code: TSLA) Write down thoughts about the aftermath.
As many of you know, I've been following Musk for quite some time. Almost as long as he's been with me.
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Musk founded Tesla on the idea that electric cars could save the planet by helping to significantly reduce carbon dioxide emissions. In my opinion and many others, this is grossly misguided thinking that does not take into account the many hidden costs (many hidden visible) of (1) finding, extracting, transporting and processing the necessary raw materials. for motors and batteries, (2) Charge the battery (Tesla vehicles, in
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Andreas Hopf, external combustion locomotives) and (3) disposing of the toxic stew left over when the batteries die (recycling is not yet, and probably far from, an economically sensible option).
It would be more effective to focus on hybrid vehicles and develop government policy (subsidies, mandates, etc.) in that direction.
But that is not the truth. Elon Musk was in tune with the zentgeist, and he did it brilliantly, and California's political luminaries were soon on board. Of course, this is not just a California phenomenon. A large part of Europe, especially Germany, also had the same fever. The same goes for Australia. Same as the rest of the world.
Deduct the financial value of subsidies, grants, free land, low user fees, tax breaks, and various other Tesla benefits (HV lane rights, parking rights, etc.) from Tesla's lifetime profits. Like I said, minus those (which taxpayers and taxpayers pay for knowingly or largely unknowingly), Tesla would be in a deep red. I guess we should congratulate Musk for adjusting his sails so well to match the political winds.
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Fast forward to 2018. This year, Tesla relied heavily on the favor of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which arranged cheap land leases for Tesla's Shanghai factory and provided cheap financing to build and operate the factory (
Tesla's 2021 10-K 10.70-10.75 and affordable (in fact, unprecedented for an automaker) 100% foreign ownership.
MaxedOutMama and I have written a lot about Tesla in China. For example here, here, here and here. It can be said that most of Tesla's profits today come from China and the CCP's boots are on Tesla's neck. It can pressure it at any time by deciding that there are "exceptional circumstances" that make it "in the public interest" (Article 22 of the 2018 aid agreement) to return the area. Or, to put it another way, the factory does not meet the "essential standards" (ibid. 30), whatever they may be, and must therefore cease operations.
Unfortunately for Musk, it's just Tesla (relying on Chinese government connections) and SpaceX (relying on US government contracts) and the Boring Company (relying on local government stupidity) and Neuralink (relying on public gullibility). Leading genius not enough.
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He also had to make himself a champion of free speech. He had already begun rehearsing the role during the famous Tesla conference call, when he refused to answer "boring" and "stupid" analyst questions, instead appealing directly to his retail investors to make appropriate inquiries.
The exercise continued after health officials in California's Alameda County ordered Tesla to close its Fremont factory for a few days amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Musk, who inappropriately claimed that COVID would be just a memory by April 2020, defied authorities and later spoke about how "fascists" threatened his rights in California.
I am also a critic of the California administration. After all, it was the California Air Resources Board (known as CARB), knowing better, that allowed Tesla to collect improper and valuable ZEV credits on "battery replacement" claims that are always highly questionable (in fact, Tesla removed all references to the battery a change from his material published years ago). Regardless, as Alameda County health officials try to shut down Tesla's Fremont factory (and all similar facilities in the county), COVID is a major danger, we don't have a vaccine for it, and they don't have a vaccine for the disease. Much less is known than is known today.
Among other things, Musk agreed to buy Twitter, which he claimed was a non-negotiable offer. Then try to exit the store. He then engaged in a very public but ultimately fruitless battle to avoid his contractual obligations based on patently silly claims. At the same time, he was ridiculed for the dishonesty of his legal claims. Then Delaware's Chancellor of the Exchequer wrote decision after decision in clear and persuasive prose that overshadowed his counterclaim and strongly suggested that he had attempted to conceal the evidence he was being asked to present.
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At the same time, the opportunity to buy the company at a discount of several billion dollars was lost.
'Pranks and delays': How Musk and Twitter completed the deal, Financial Times, October 30, 2022 (Financial Times)
Instead, endless derogatory attacks on the company, damaging the goods he eventually has to buy. And refused to agree to a "retention bonus" for Twitter's key employees after the acquisition. And at the same time, he racked up huge legal bills for himself and the companies he acquired, whose fees were drained from the company's coffers before Twitter became Musk's property.
And worst of all, it not only made serious businessmen distrust him, but also alienated his left-leaning suburban clientele.
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Musk's weirdness in 2022 goes far beyond the Twitter deal. He famously suggested that Ukraine make major concessions to Russia. Again, a large part of the actual and potential customer base will be alienated.
He then suggested that Taiwan become a "special administrative region" of Communist China, like Hong Kong, but with a slightly more liberal and benevolent Chinese government. This time, it not only alienated even more potential customers, but also italicized, underlined, highlighted and boldly showed the extent to which Tesla and Musk were necessarily supporters of the Chinese government. There is good reason for the US (and much of the rest of the West) to be very wary of this government.
The latest stroke of genius came from shutting down the Twitter store. Musk immediately fired his top executives, claiming the firings were "for cause," depriving those executives of their severance pay, and the fired executives are almost certain to sue.
And to top it all off, Musk retweeted a Santa Monica Observer sketchy report that Paul Pelosi's attack was the result of an encounter with a male prostitute. Outraged, Musk quickly deleted his tweet, but further damage had already been done.
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Musk was probably right to warn that there may be more to the attack than meets the eye. In fact, there is evidence that the attackers may have acted more out of emotional instability than any deep-seated political conviction. But accepting the far right's absurd conspiracy theories alienates even more potential customers.
The good ship Twitter was $13 billion in debt when Musk bought it. The annual interest expenses alone are almost a billion dollars. How to pay all these expenses?
Musk's first idea was to quadruple the fees charged to Twitter posters. It doesn't seem to be going well, I feel like the financial plan is not going well
For Musk, owning Twitter is probably the worst thing that ever happened to Tesla. Monitoring the content published on the most important social media sites is a very difficult job. It's hard work. I agree that Twitter sometimes goes too far with censorship, and I could reasonably argue that its prosperity favors the narrative of the American left. But Musk is now discovering how easy it is to err in the other direction.
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While the revenue from the "blue check" posters has been substantial, Twitter's main source of revenue has always been advertising. The dispute over Musk's acquisitions threatens this revenue stream. At least one major advertiser has announced that it will suspend ad buying while it waits to see what social media platforms emerge.
Yes, the advertiser is Tesla rival General Motors (GM), but it's easy to imagine GM isn't alone, and other potential advertisers would be wary. Not without good reason. Musk's ownership of Twitter puts him at the center of a never-ending political storm, made more dangerous by the upcoming midterm elections and Donald Trump's apparent desire to run for president of the United States in 2024.
In fact, as I prepared to send this text, there was a report that a group of left-wing groups were calling on advertisers to boycott Twitter. The question is not whether this is wise or not
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